e of ban of crude oil export.
Go up century at the beginning of 70 time, suffer oil crisis concussion, american home oil price shoots up for a time. Supply safety to ensure native oil, the United States came on stage 1975 " energy policy and energy-saving law " , limit export of native crude oil strictly. In recent years, in shaly revolution drive below, american crude output increases considerably, the cry that American home asks crude oil of lift a ban is exported is ceaseless and rising.
Lu Jinsi of cloth of American wisdom library learns the research before this to show, if crude oil of lift a ban exported the United States 2015, to 2020, american crude daily output will ban 1.3 million pails many to reach 2.9 million pails than indissolubling, arrived 2015 2020, year all drive the United States to add obtain employment post newly to will amount to 200 thousand.
The United States De Bo of the sources of energy of international peace foundation and environmental project director pulls Carnegie Gordon tells a reporter, exit of crude oil of American lift a ban is opposite change market the anticipation of infrastructure of industry of American oil gas, attract more investment for this industry, future may build more petroleum pipeline and export terminal facilities.
Nevertheless, short-term look, the foreground that American crude oil exports is bad, not big also to impact of international crude market.
Aibingeer tells Charles of controller of project of security of energy resources of society of cloth Lu Jinsi the reporter, the impact that crude oil of lift a ban of current United States exports pair of international crude markets will be very little, because be supplied in global crude oil superfluous with oil price low confused double retype is pressed below, the crude oil that the United States can export is very few, limits also is met only confine is in circumjacent country and area. He predicts, although arrive 2017 first quarter, american day all volume of crude oil export goes to 100 thousand pails 75 thousand pails possibly also only, and at present global day all crude oil consumption exceeds 90 million pails.
Gordon says, exit of crude oil of American lift a ban means supply of global crude oil to increase, may oil price of farther depress international, but range won't be very big. Because, international London of two big fiducial oil price the price difference with oil price and new York current oil price has Bulunte only 2 dollars left and right sides, add transport costs, on the international market, the landed crude oil photograph such as American crude oil and Africa, middle east is compared and do not have competition ability.
18 days, new York oil price closes at every pails of 34.73 dollars, london oil price receives Bulunte at every pails of 36.88 dollars, relatively last year in year highest when all drop go making an appointment with 2/3. Analytic orgnaization predicts generally, state of low oil price is short-term won't end.
Aibingeer says, pick up to maintain to every pails of 60 dollars when international oil price only in this one level, the United States ability may be large-scale exit crude oil, day all exports a quantity to achieve 700 thousand reach 1 million pails; And oil price should rise to this one level, also should arrive the earliest 2017 the end of the year or 2018 the beginning of the year.
The influence that exit of crude oil of American lift a ban imports to Chinese crude oil also very won't big, import crude oil from the United States because of current C
hina economically not be to one's profit.
Aibingeer says, the carriage cost that goes crude oil China from American carry is very high, china is not compared from American entrance crude oil import crude oil petty gain from circumjacent country, and the crude oil that the country has the Chinese periphery such as Indonesia to be able to offer outlet in great quantities.
Gordon also thinks, if London the difference of oil price and new York oil price cannot increase Bulunte 5 dollars above, the consideration carries cost, china imports crude oil from the United States won't be good deal.
But, aibingeer and Gordon all think, if prospective oil price rises, china may import crude oil from the United States, and conduce to Chinese crude oil importing more diversity.